New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics abstracts

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Application of M8 and Lin-Lin algorithms to New Zealand earthquake data

MA LI

Centre for Analysis and Prediction
State Seismological Bureau
P.O. Box 166
Beijing 100036, China

DAVID VERE-JONES

Institute of Statistics and Operations Research
Victoria University of Wellington
P.O. Box 600
Wellington, New Zealand

Abstract  This paper describes the application to New Zealand data of two algorithms recently made available through the IASPEI software programme. These are the M8 algorithm, which has the objective of identifying times and regions of heightened probability of the occurrence of a large damaging earthquake, and the Lin-Lin algorithm, which has the objective of identifying linear causal relationships between one sequence of events and another. The M8 algorithm is applied to the New Zealand events listed in the NEIC catalogue, and to shallow, deep, and combined events listed in the New Zealand local catalogue. The most notable feature of the M8 analysis is the generation of TIPS (times of increased probability) for 1993 onward, for central New Zealand regions from both the New Zealand and NEIC catalogues. No short-term linear causal relationships between New Zealand deep and shallow earthquakes are detected by the Lin-Lin algorithm.

The paper includes brief discussions of the catalogues, of the background and structure of the algorithms used, and of the results obtained.

Keywords  earthquake prediction; New Zealand; earthquakes; point process models; M8 algorithm; Lin-Lin algorithm

New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 1997, Vol. 40: 77-89

0028-8306/97/4001--0077 $2.50/0 (c) The Royal Society of New Zealand 1997

PDF file of entire paper: medium quality (1329K); (scanned from paper original: notes about this process)

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