New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics abstracts

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Quantifying the M8 prediction algorithm: reduction to a single critical variable and stability results

David Harte

Statistics Research Associates
P.O. Box 12 649
Wellington, New Zealand

Dong-Feng Li

Department of Mathematics
School of Mathematical Science
Beijing University
Beijing 100871, China

Maaike Vreede

Department of Statistics
Massey University
Private Bag 11 222
Palmerston North, New Zealand

David Vere-Jones

Statistics Research Associates
P.O. Box 12 649
Wellington, New Zealand
and
School of Mathematical & Computing Sciences
Victoria University of Wellington
Wellington, New Zealand

Abstract   An implementation of the seven M8 functions within a statistical seismology software library (SSLib) is described. An algorithm is also developed for combining the seven series into a single Critical Series such that a “Time of Increased Probability” (TIP) is declared for the test region whenever the Critical Series passes its threshold level. Values of the Critical Series are plotted for circles on a dense lattice of points covering New Zealand, for each 6 monthly period. The resulting maps can be used to obtain a geographical impression of the evolution of regions close to or far from reaching TIP status according to the criteria embodied in the original M8 algorithm. We examine the stability of the M8 series for small perturbations of the centres of the test regions and the start date of the computations. It is inferred that such instability that is observed in the declaration of TIPs is due more to the use of hard boundaries in the definition of the TIP than to the instability of the component series.

Keywords   earthquake prediction; probability forecasts; M8 algorithm; pattern recognition; spatial-temporal predictor

G02006 Received 28 January 2002; accepted 22 October 2002; published 21 March 2003
New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics, 2003, Vol. 46: 141-152
0028-8306/03/4601-0141 $7.00/0 © The Royal Society of New Zealand 2003

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