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Conference Secretariat
Janet Matheson
Conference Manager
Conference & Events Ltd
Wellington New Zealand
Tel: +64 4 562 0089
email: janet@confer.co.nz
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Global Carbon Trends
Pep Canadell
- Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research,
Canberra, Australia
The increase in
atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is the single largest human perturbation
on the earth’s radiative balance contributing to climate change. Its rate
of change reflects the balance between anthropogenic carbon emissions and
the dynamics of a number of terrestrial and ocean processes that remove
or emit CO2. It is the long term evolution of this balance that will
determine to large extent the speed and magnitude of the human induced
climate change and the mitigation requirements to stabilize atmospheric
CO2 concentrations at any given level. In this talk, I’ll show new trends
in global carbon sources and sinks, with particularly focus on major
shifts occurring since 2000 when the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 has
reached its highest level on record. The acceleration in the CO2 growth
results from the combination of several changes in properties of the
carbon cycle, including: i) acceleration of anthropogenic carbon
emissions, ii) increased carbon intensity of the global economy, and iii)
decreased efficiency of natural carbon sinks. I’ll discuss in more detail
some of the likely causes of the reduced efficiency of natural carbon
sinks. All these changes characterize a carbon cycle that is generating
stronger than expected climate forcing, and sooner than expected.
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The carbon cycle: An emerging nexus between science
and policy
Martin Manning, Climate Change
Research Institute, School of
Government, Victoria
University
While it is important to recognize that CO2 is not the only
significant greenhouse gas, the nature of its emissions and removals
to/from the atmosphere is more complex than for other gases. This
complexity is apparent from both science and policy perspectives and
there is a strong common interest in making further progress on both
fronts.
Ironically, while changes in atmospheric
CO2 concentrations are one of the best determined factors in
anthropogenic climate change, the drivers for these changes are some of the
least well understood. Uncertainty in carbon cycle processes at a global
scale, and how these may evolve under climate change, has become one of
the main uncertainties in projections of climate change. Our ability to
validate carbon cycle models against observations remains limited due to
difficulties in determining change in the terrestrial biosphere, much of
which occurs as a result of poorly documented human actions in the past.
Thus while fossil fuel emissions are tracking close to the upper end of the
range of scenarios envisaged in the late 1990s, the situation for
land-use change emissions remains uncertain.
From a policy perspective, the pervasive
way in which CO2 emissions arise in our industrialised society creates
major challenges for emission reductions. The very different nature of
industrial and land-use change emissions, the difficulty of monitoring
the latter, and their different dependence on historical actions has also
led to a complex policy framework that attempts to balance many interests.
This has not been helped by misunderstandings across the science-policy
interface that in some cases have taken many years to address.
Improving understanding of the carbon
cycle clearly has advantages for policy and science. Some progress is
being made in the expansion of monitoring and research efforts to target
specific policy relevant science questions, but the reluctance of funding
agencies to support monitoring remains a real constraint. Scientists need
to do more to acknowledge and explain the limits of their present
understanding. Policy makers likewise need to acknowledge that management
of CO2 emissions and removals will have to proceed in the face of large
uncertainties in some respects. Both communities should work together
more closely to identify pragmatic near-term objectives that would
improve policy frameworks and advance scientific understanding.
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Carbon dioxide and methane changes over recent
millennia from the ice core record: causes, climate forcing and feedbacks
D. Etheridge1,2, P. Steele1, C. MacFarling Meure1#,
R. Langenfelds1, C. Trudinger1, R. Francey1,
C. Allison1, P. Krummel1, K. Lassey3, D.
Lowe3, D. Ferretti3#, I. Enting3, T. van Ommen5,
A. Smith6, J. White7
1CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Australia
2Centre for Ice and Climate, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
3NIWA, Wellington, New Zealand
4MASCOS, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia
5Australian Antarctic Division and ACE CRC, Hobart, Australia
6ANSTO, Menai, Australia
7University of Colorado, Boulder, USA
#no longer with the organisation
Measurements of atmospheric trace gas composition from times
before reliable direct observations began in the late 20th century come
from air enclosed in polar ice and firn. This presentation will review
the evidence for changes in atmospheric CO2 and CH4 and their isotopes
over the past 2000 years found from this archive. This period is
dominated by concentration growth due to industrial and agricultural
emissions over the past 200 years, causing trace gas radiative forcing to
increase at unprecedented rates. It also contains evidence for early
natural and anthropogenic CO2 and CH4 variations and for climate-carbon
feedbacks.
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Recording the past and informing the future: The
history of atmospheric CO2 measurements in New Zealand
Dave Lowe LOWENZ ltd, Victoria University
Antarctic Research Centre and NIWA, Wellington,
New Zealand
In the late 1950s Dave Keeling of Scripps Institution of
Oceanography in California began a
series of continuous atmospheric CO2 measurements at a mountain top site
(Mauna Loa) in Hawaii.
These data with their compelling and eye catching message of the rapidly
increasing burden of CO2 in the atmosphere have been central to our
understanding of the impact of industrial and agricultural emissions of
carbon into the Earth system. In 1969 Dave Keeling and colleagues
initiated work with the DSIR in Lower Hutt to begin a joint project which
saw the advent of continuous atmospheric CO2 measurements in New Zealand.
This record, currently maintained by NIWA at Baring Head, forms the
longest continuous record of CO2 in the Southern Hemisphere. In this
presentation I will look at the history of the New Zealand atmospheric CO2
project and review some of the early decisions made on the measurement
site, automation and instrumentation and the implications of the data
set.
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Ocean-Atmosphere Feedbacks in the Carbon Cycle
Keith A Hunter - Department of Chemistry, University of Otago,
Dunedin
The ocean is the dominant reservoir of carbon in the Earth’s
carbon cycle, containing about 40,000 Gt, much larger than the atmosphere
600 Gt). The reason that CO2 released by~700 Gt) or biosphere (~( fossil fuel burning has not all been absorbed
by the ocean is that uptake of CO2 is limited by the slow rate of water
circulation in the 1600 yr). Nonetheless, at least 30% of~deep ocean (time scale anthropogenic CO2 has already been
absorbed, mainly in the upper levels of the ocean. Absorption is not
uniform across the ocean’s surface, but depends on various physical
processes. Some regions, e.g. at high latitude, are strong sinks for
atmospheric CO2, while some areas are actually sources of CO2 for the
atmosphere. Our recent research for a time series across the Otago
Shelf shows that there is a strong biologically-driven seasonal cycle in
the degree to which the ocean has absorbed excess CO2, with maximum
absorption in later winter. The implications of CO2 absorption by the
ocean on biological systems will be discussed in this context.
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Carbon Cycling in the South West Pacific
Ocean
Kim Currie, NIWA, Dunedin, Scott
Nodder, NIWA Wellington
Spatial and temporal variability of the air-sea carbon flux in the South
West Pacific Ocean has been investigated as part of a joint NIWA / University of Otago programme. A time
series surface transect including neritic, modified subtropical and
subantarctic surface water masses indicates general undersaturation of
CO2 with respect to the atmosphere. The pCO2 seasonal cycle is
dominated by biological processes, and there is no evidence for an
increase in surface water CO2 concentration paralleling the increased
atmospheric concentration. Initial estimates of the magnitude of
the New Zealand Exclusive Economic Zone carbon sink is 0.06 Pg C year-1
(natural plus anthropogenic). The region is not well represented by
global models and databases due to the complex physical oceanography of
the region.
Two deep-ocean, biophysical time-series moorings have been maintained by
NIWA in subtropical and subantarctic waters, east of New Zealand,
since 2000. These moorings are designed to measure changes in ocean
physical structure, chemistry and biology, including the rates at which
carbon is transferred from the surface to the deep ocean. The carbon
stored in this deep-ocean reservoir is removed from further contact with
the atmosphere on time-scales of 1000's of years. Ancillary sampling of
carbon chemistry and biological processes conducted regularly at the
mooring sites will provide better future estimates of the ocean carbon
inventory and fluxes. Carbon cycling by deep ocean benthic, or sea-floor,
biological communities has also been quantified in the same region, but
only on sub-seasonal time-scales.
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Air Sea Fluxes of CO2 in the Southern Ocean: Past,
Present, and Future
S. E. Mikaloff Fletcher1, N. Gruber2, A. R.
Jacobson3, K. Rodgers1, A. Gnanadesikan4,
J. L. Sarmiento1, and the Ocean Inversion Modellers
1Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University,
Princeton, U.S.A.
2Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH,
Zurich, Switzerland
3Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, U.S.A.
3Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton,
U.S.A.
Earth’s oceans have taken up 48% of the total anthropogenic CO2
emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement production since 1800, and
about 25% of this ocean sink is believed to occur in the Southern
Ocean. Yet there are still major gaps in our understanding of
the processes controlling air-sea CO2 fluxes in the Southern Ocean and
their response to climate change.
We explore the constraints that can be
applied to the past and present fluxes of CO2 into the Southern Ocean by
oceanic and atmospheric observations and models. First, we use
inverse methods to separately estimate the natural air-sea fluxes of CO2,
which would have already existed in pre-industrial times, and the
anthropogenic uptake of CO2 using ocean interior observations and ocean
general circulation models (OGCMs). We find that during
pre-industrial times the Southern Ocean was a source of CO2 to the
atmosphere, but that the Southern Ocean is currently a net sink due to
the increase in atmospheric CO2 since pre-industrial times. We then
examine what the latitudinal gradient of natural radiocarbon indicates
about changes in ventilation of the Southern Ocean, and the implications
for the Southern Ocean response to past and future climate change
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Climate-mediated changes to mixed-layer
properties in the World
Ocean: how will
phytoplankton respond?
Philip Boyd1 & Scott Doney2
1NIWA Centre for Chemical and Physical Oceanography,
Department of Chemistry, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
(pboyd@alkali.otago.ac.nz)
2Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry Department, Woods Hole
Oceanographic Institution, USA
Phytoplankton are microscopic plants that are ubiquitous in the
lit surface waters of the ocean. They are responsible for half of
global carbon fixation (via photosynthesis), and moreover also influence
the production of other important climate reactive gases (such as DMS).
Climate change is projected to alter ocean chemical and physical
properties, that will in turn influence phytoplankton dynamics via
alterations in carbonate chemistry, nutrient and trace metal inventories
and upper ocean light environment. Given the pivotal role that
phytoplankton play in global carbon fixation, it is important to
ascertain how they will respond to this new matrix of environmental
conditions. Will climate-change mediated changes in phytoplankton
productivity result in a negative or positive feedback, and will this vary
regionally?
In this presentation, we will explore
these questions - for the Southern Ocean-
using a fully coupled, global carbon-climate model (Climate System Model
1.4-carbon), we quantify anthropogenic climate change relative to the
background natural interannual variability for the Southern Ocean over
the period 2000 and 2100. Our conclusions are drawn from the
interpretation of model results using our understanding of the
environmental control of phytoplankton growth rates for this oceanographic
province.
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Iron fertilisation - can biogeoengineering enhance the ocean
carbon sink?
Cliff Law, NIWA, Wellington
The biological pump, which involves CO2
uptake by phytoplankton and subsequent vertical particle export,
maintains the ocean carbon sink. Measurements in the late 80’s led to
John Martins “iron hypothesis” which postulated that inefficient phytoplankton
growth in regions of perennially high nutrients was due to limited iron
availability, and further that higher carbon export in the last glacial
maximum reflected elevated iron levels. This stimulated a decade of in
situ mesoscale iron experiments in different HNLC (High Nutrient Low
Chlorophyll) regions that primarily confirmed iron limitation of
phytoplankton, but did not identify an
associated significant increase in carbon sequestration. Nevertheless
Martins challenge, “Give me a tanker full of iron, and I’ll give you an
ice age” instilled the idea that iron fertilisation was a potential
silver bullet for ameliorating the increase in atmospheric CO2, paving
the way for promotion of large-scale fertilisation by commercial
organisations. This talk will consider the results of the iron
experiments and what they tell us regarding the efficacy and viability of
large-scale fertilisation, the logistical challenges of implementation,
verification, and monitoring of associated side-effects, and the evolving
legislation.
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Erosion and Sedimentation on the New Zealand
Landscape: A Source or Sink of C to the Atmosphere?
Troy Baisden, National Isotope Centre, GNS Science.
Coauthors:
John Dymond, Kevin Tate, Suzanne Lambie, Hugh Wilde, Roger Parfitt
(Landcare Research) and Mike Page (GNS Science)
The rapid tectonic uplift of the New Zealand (NZ) landscape
drives dramatic erosion and deposition processes that have been – in many
areas – accelerated by land-use change during since Polynesian and
particularly European settlement. Previous work has shown that New Zealand’s
rivers presently deliver approximately 3±1 Tg C y-1 to the oceans, of
which 65% is derived from the most mountainous 9% of NZ. Moreover, 20% is
derived from steeplands dominated by human-induced land cover on soft
rocks covering only 2% of NZ. Recent global calculations emphasize that
moderate levels of erosion and deposition on productive land represents a
net sink for C, yet appear to underestimate the likely sink magnitude for
NZ. We demonstrate calculation methods for providing the first estimates
of NZ’s net terrestrial C sink induced by erosion and deposition. Our
calculations highlight the growing recognition that mountain belts create
a global C sink via organic carbon burial rather than silicate
weathering.
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New Zealand
Continental Margin C Fluxes
John Zeldis1, Murray
Hicks1, Noel Trustrum2, Alan Orpin3,
Scott Nodder3, Keith Probert4, Ude Shankar1,
Kim Currie5
1National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
(NIWA).
2 Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences 3National
Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, 4
Department of Marine Science, University of Otago, 5
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
New Zealand has high erosive carbon (C) yields to the ocean
on world standards. The yields are about equal between the North and South Islands
and are especially high in Westland and
eastern central North Island, where
erosion is exacerbated by the near-complete removal of native forest
cover. The organic C transfer is about 4 Mt yr-1 to the ocean, similar to
NZ’s plantation forest annual C sequestration and about ½ its fossil fuel
C emissions. Much of the material is probably metabolised on the shelf,
making it a significant but unquantified term in NZ’s CO2
inventory.
Most productivity in NZ shelf waters is
driven by oceanic rather than terrestrial nutrients. Examples include
West Coast South Island and northeast North Island
(Hauraki) shelves where upwelling is the major driver of production. The
Hauraki shelf is probably net-autotrophic, as is the Otago shelf where
net CO2 flux has been measured directly. However, closer to the
coastline, the Firth of Thames is strongly net-heterotrophic and a source
of dissolved inorganic C (DIC), driven by high nutrient loading from
farmland. In contrast, Nelson
Bays are
net-autotrophic and sinks for DIC, driven by predominate oceanic
inorganic nutrient supply. These systems demonstrate contrasting effects
of terrestrial vs. ocean-side dominance of nutrient supply on C
metabolism in the NZ context.
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Geological CO2 storage: the need for permanence
and the ability to detect and quantify escape to the atmosphere
D. Etheridge1, 2, R. Leuning1, 2,
A. Luhar1,P. Steele1 D. Spencer1,
I. Enting3, C. Allison1, M. Meyer1, S.
Zegelin1, Z. Loh1 P. Krummel1 and S.
Sharma2,4
1CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research and Energy Transformed
Flagship, Aspendale, Australia
2CRC for Greenhouse Gas Technologies (CO2CRC), Canberra,
Australia
3MASCOS, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia
4Schlumberger Oilfield Services, Perth, Australia
Geological carbon storage (geosequestration) is planned to be a
major greenhouse gas emission reduction measure. Near permanent isolation
of the CO2 from the atmosphere must be demonstrated to assure the public and
regulators that the technique is safe, to prove that emissions can indeed
be reduced and to be able to claim carbon credits.
To do so, a range of monitoring methods is required. Atmospheric
monitoring brings several benefits that complement seismic, geochemical
and hydrological monitoring. However, detection of changes in CO2
concentration near a storage site that might result from a leak must be
made against a high and variable atmospheric background due to ecosystem
exchange and industrial emissions.
We begin by quantifying the global mean leak rate for geological storage
that is sustainable from a climatic perspective. We then simulate
releases of CO2 from a hypothetical storage site with an atmospheric
dispersion model and design a monitoring strategy to best detect and
quantify the emissions. The strategy includes concentrations and isotopes
of the CO2, tracers and CO2 fluxes. Finally we present preliminary
monitoring results from the CO2CRC Otway Project in Victoria, Australia,
where CO2 storage in a depleted natural gas reservoir has recently begun.
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The Potential for Geological Sequestration of CO2:
Opportunities for New Zealand and its Energy Sector
Rob H Funnell, Steve W Edbrooke, Andy Nicol and Brad D Field
GNS Science, Lower Hutt,New Zealand
Geological sequestration (geosequestration) of carbon dioxide or
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is being increasingly identified
world-wide as a potential mitigation measure in the reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions, primarily from energy production using fossil
fuels. Several small- to moderate-scale projects are currently
sequestering CO2 underground in Norway,
Canada and Algeria with larger-scale projects planned
for Europe and Australia.
Opportunities for geosequestration in New Zealand
are currently being assessed with an emphasis on site characterization,
monitoring and verification and risk assessment. This research is aimed
at establishing a knowledge and capability platform for geosequestration
in New Zealand, paving
the way for pilot-scale injection projects, and to help reduce New Zealand’s
greenhouse gas emissions.
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Development of CO2 observation from space –the
Orbiting Carbon Observatory
Brian J Connor
The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) is a NASA-funded satellite
due for launch in December 2008. It is slated to be the first
satellite instrument designed and dedicated exclusively for global
observations of CO2. It will determine the mean mixing ratio of CO2 in
the path from the ground to the top of the atmosphere, known as XCO2. OCO
will acquire data with the accuracy and measurement density required to
identify CO2 sources and sinks, and their seasonal variation, on regional
scales (~ 1000 x 1000 km) over the globe. For this, a precision of 1-2
ppm (0.3-05%) in the monthly average, regional results will be required.
OCO consists of three grating spectrometers, wavelength, and themmeasuring spectral bands of CO2 near 2.1 and 1.6
, with a very small footprint in
the nadir of 3 km2.mO2 band at 0.76 It has a minimum design lifetime of 2
years. Its data will be validated by comparison to the Total Carbon
Column Observing Network (TCCON) of upward-looking spectrometers
measuring the same spectral bands, which will in turn be tied to in situ
measurements made at the surface and from aircraft.
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CarbonTracker:
An annually-updated CO2 reanalysis from the NOAA Earth System
Research Laboratory
Andrew R. Jacobson1,2, Wouter Peters2,3, Kenneth
A. Masarie2, Pieter P. Tans2, Arlyn Andrews2,
Lori M. P. Bruhwiler2, Thomas J. Conway2, John B.
Miller1,2, Gabrielle Pétron1,2, Colm Sweeney1,2
1 CIRES, University of Colorado
2 NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
3 Wageningen Research University, The Netherlands
CarbonTracker is a system for inferring land and ocean
surface exchange of carbon dioxide from observed atmospheric
CO2 molefractions. All of its results, including estimated
fluxes, inferred atmospheric CO2 distributions, input observations,
and the model source code are available online at http://
carbontracker.noaa.gov. Each year in October, NOAA will release
a new version of the product, bringing estimates up to date
and incorporating new observations and model improvements.
The most recent CarbonTracker release, covering the period
2000-2006, assimilated over 37,000 CO2 observations from the NOAA
observational programs and Cooperative Air Sampling Network,
Environment Canada, and from the U.S. National Center for
Atmospheric Research. This data assimilation system computes
adjustments to first-guess fluxes using an ensemble Kalman filter
built into the TM5 offline tracer transport model. These
first-guess fluxes come from external process models of the
terrestrial biosphere, oceans, and fossil fuel emissions.
This modular structure allows CarbonTracker to use a variety of
advanced process models to test hypotheses about the carbon cycle
and to explicitly account for uncertainty in our knowledge of
biogeochemical cycling. In this presentation I will briefly
introduce the CarbonTracker system and discuss an interesting
problem involving air-sea fluxes in the southern hemisphere.
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Towards an effective
climate change policy: context, dilemmas and options
Professor Jonathan Boston - Acting Director, Institute of Policy
Studies, Victoria
University of Wellington
This presentation will provide a brief summary of recent
developments in climate change policy, both internationally and in New Zealand,
outline the key dilemmas and challenges facing policy makers as they seek
to formulate effective measures to mitigate and adapt to anthropogenic
climate change, and consider the main policy options available. With the
first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expiring at the end of
2012, particular attention will be given to the current international
negotiations to secure a new agreement on climate change for post-2012.
Also considered will be the implications for New Zealand of such an
agreement, as well as the possible failure of the international community
to reach a new consensus.
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Integrating
science and economics to inform the design of climate change policy
Suzi C Kerr Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, Wellington, New Zealand
Well-designed climate change policy requires careful integration
of economic and scientific knowledge. Some of this is done, particularly
for global cost benefit analysis of climate policy, through large
integrated assessment models. This paper discusses a different approach
that we are taking in New
Zealand that responds partly to our
interest in a different set of more ‘micro’ questions and is also
cognizant of our limited resources. The EcoClimate collaboration, under a
FRST-funded project that began in October last year, are creating a
modelling framework that can link a series of pre-existing models in a
variety of ways. Each policy question will utilise a different set of
linkages. We use the pre-existing models to ensure that we use the
best available local knowledge. The integration is done through active
collaboration between the specialists in each of the disciplines
required. Two examples of work are a study of the impacts of climate
change on pastoral agriculture and hence the economy; and simulations of
the likely effect of methane charges on land use patterns.
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From global to
local - application of carbon cycle knowledge to New Zealand communities
F E Carswell1, G R Harmsworth2, L E Burrows3,
A J Greenaway4
1Landcare Research, Lincoln, New Zealand
2Landcare Research, Palmerston North, New Zealand
3Landcare Research, Lincoln, New Zealand
4Landcare Research, Auckland, New Zealand
Landcare Research has used knowledge of the terrestrial carbon
cycle to pilot a trading system for New Zealand landowners to
sell carbon credits from regenerating forests in a pre-Kyoto
market. Approximately 18,000 tonnes CO2e have been traded through
the Emissions-Biodiversity Exchange (EBEX21) project. In this
presentation we share our experiences of engagement with the wider
landowning community, including explicit consideration of the potential
for māori participation in carbon farming. In addition, we briefly
examine early sub-national responses to climate change mitigation and
adaptation.
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The Essential role
of Māori in the Climate Change Policy and Program
Chris Karamea Insley,
Managing Director, 37 Degrees South Limited, Gisborne, New Zealand
Te Whanau A Apanui, Ngati Porou
Climate change is real and will create both new risks and
opportunities for all interested in participating. Not only is it real
but is it new and breaking many of the long held rules and conventions
held by political, science and business leaders alike. Resource
management, environmental degradation and global warming are now at the
forefront of international discussions. The challenge for leaders today
is to effectively interpret these signs and view day to day operations in
light of these changing global trends and patterns. New business
opportunities will arise, while those businesses who fail to interpret
these signs will fail.
Sustainability is not new for Māori. Māori
have a large and growing stake in New Zealand’s primary sectors
and therefore in this respect, do not have a choice but to be actively
engaged in the climate change debate. Climate change will create new
sustainable land development options where in Europe
26 billion Euros of carbon credit trades occurred.
Māori are already showing leadership
domestically and internationally at both policy and practical levels, but
will still need to think strategically and critically about how to
navigate this new territory to realize the value while always holding
firm to the values (of sustainability) handed down from our tipuna.
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New Zealand’s
National Greenhouse Gas Inventory
Len J. Brown, Ministry for the Environment,New Zealand
The development and publication of an annual inventory of all
human-induced emissions and removals of greenhouse gases not controlled
by the Montreal Protocol is part of New Zealand’s obligations under the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Articles 4 and 12)
and the Kyoto Protocol (Article 7). The inventory is the primary tool for
measuring New Zealand’s
progress against these international obligations. On April 15th 2008, the
Ministry for the Environment will submit an updated national inventory to
the secretariat of the UNFCCC. The latest inventory will cover the period
1990-2006.
The presentation will cover the background
to New Zealand’s
annual inventory under the UNFCCC, how the inventory relates to reporting
and accounting under the Kyoto Protocol and present key figures from the
latest inventory.
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New Zealand Terrestrial Carbon Budget: Introductory
Comments
David Whitehead Landcare
Research, Lincoln, New Zealand
Quantifying the carbon budget for terrestrial systems, including
estimates of uncertainty in inventories, is essential to meet New Zealand’s
reporting requirements and establish a base for calculating emissions
liabilities. Further, there is a need to estimate the effects of land-use
change and predict the impacts of changing climate carbon inventory.
These calculations need to be supported by credible measurements of
carbon stocks and rates of exchange in above- and below-ground components
for all land-uses, based on a sound understanding of ecosystem processes.
We start this session by identifying the
requirements for reporting on carbon stocks, followed by a presentation
of the best estimates available for carbon balance in New Zealand.
Potential changes in soil carbon storage with changing land-use are
identified as an important issue needing urgent attention. We then
explore approaches to measure carbon exchange directly at ecosystem
scales for pasture and forest systems and the potential for increasing
carbon storage in soils using biochar. Speakers at the panel discussion
will be asked to identify future research needs.
Much more of the state-of-the-art
underpinning research leading to reducing uncertainty in carbon exchange
and storage will be presented in posters that accompany this session.
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Meeting Article
3.3 requirements under the Kyoto protoco:
the lucas project
Peter R. Stephens, Ministry for the Environment, Wellington, New
Zealand
To meet obligations under Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol, New Zealand
is required to estimate, in an unbiased manner, forest and soil carbon
stock change, over the Protocol’s first commitment period (2008-2012).
The carbon stock changes required to be reported result from direct human
induced change associated with land use, land-use change, and forestry.
New
Zealand’s Land Use and Carbon Analysis System (LUCAS) has been designed
to meet the carbon reporting and accounting requirements under the Kyoto
Protocol. This presentation describes the overall design of LUCAS, and
the forest and soil inventory, and land use mapping work programmes.
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New
Zeland's Terrestial Carbon Budget and the Effects of Land-Use Change
K R Tate, C M Trotter, A S Walcroft, C B Hedley, R H Wilde, G Arnold,
J Dymond, M Kirschbaum,
Landcare Research, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
Our current national estimate of New Zealands
terrestrial above- and below-ground annual NPP (190 Tg C y-1 ) is
approximately balanced by soil respiration (heterotrophic and
autotrophic) Further revision of this national terrestrial C budget
will result from improved estimates of soil C changes with land-use
change, and from erosion effects on soil C stocks. Since 1990, soil
C changes due to exotic forest plantings have decreased soil-C stocks by
up to 0.3 Tg C yr-1, compared with gains in biomass C of about 2 Tg C
y-1. Recent deforestation for pastoral farming is resulting in
vegetation-C losses (c. 1 Tg C y-1), partially offset by small increases
in soil C. Some management-induced soil C changes in pastures are also
apparent. Erosion-C losses to the ocean of about 3 Tg y-1 may be largely
negated by C accretion on old erosion scars. Overall, data suggest New Zealand’s
terrestrial ecosystems are close to net C balance. However, among large
uncertainties remaining are those from land area changes, land-use and
management effects on soil C, and future impacts of biofuel production
and biochar use
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Contribution of
carbon loss from pasture soils to New
Zealand’s soil carbon budget
Louis A Schipper1, Roger L Parfitt2, Greg Arnold2,
John J Claydon3, W Troy
Baisden4, Craig Ross2.
1University of Waikato , Hamilton, New Zealand
2Landcare Research, Palmerston North, New Zealand
3Landcare Research, Hamilton, New Zealand
4GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Since 2004, we have resampled soil profiles under pasture to
determine whether soil C and N is changing. Profiles were first
sampled between the 1960s and 80s. To date we have 65 profiles
resampled. Landuses sampled include intensive (mainly dairy), and a
range of less intensive land uses (drystock) including sheep, beef, deer,
horses, dairy runoff etc. Eleven soil orders are represented with
most profiles sampled to at least 60 cm, many to 1 m in depth. Profiles
are sampled for % carbon, nitrogen and bulk density by horizon, archived
soil samples from the same horizons are also reanalyzed to reduce
laboratory error. Analysis of this data demonstrated that (i) intensive
dairy on flat land non-allophanic soils (19 profiles) have lost
significant soil carbon (about 1.0 t ha-1 yr-1) since first sampled, (ii)
dairy on flat allophanic soils (13 profiles), drystock on flat land
non-allophanic soils (23 profiles) and drystock on allophanic soils (2
profiles) have not changed in soil C status; and, (iii) drystock on North
Island hill country (8 profiles) have gained soil C (about 1.3 t ha-1
yr-1) . A number of hypotheses have been proposed to account for changes
in soil C and are being tested. Further sampling is planned to extend the
geographic spread and coverage of Soil Orders.
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Policy
Formulation and Simple Climate Modelling
Greg Bodeker National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder
Simple climate models can be used to tackle a range of climate
change policy relevant questions. These models are globally aggregated
models that simulate the effects of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on
concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere, the effects of those
concentration changes on radiative forcing, and finally the effects of
the changes in radiative forcing on global mean surface temperature and
sea-level rise. This presentation will provide a brief overview of a
simple climate model in operation at NIWA, recent extensions and
enhancements that have been made to the model, and a summary of some of
the policy relevant questions that the model has been used to address.
This includes the development of alternatives to the Global Warming
Potential (GWP) concept as an equivalence metric for non-CO2 GHG
emissions, investigation of the implications of a per-capita GHG
emissions target within a Kyoto Protocol context, and analyses of
multi-gas emission profiles to meet climate change stabilization targets.
Plans for future development of the model and applications for the
advanced model will be discussed.
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NZ Domestic Policy Response
Phil Gurnsey, Ministry for the Environment, Wellington, New Zealand
Climate change is a fast moving area of public policy. Since the
Government ratified and initiated its climate change policy package in
2002, the broader situation in which climate change policy operates,
particularly as it relates to energy and forestry use, has changed
considerably.
As a Party to the Kyoto Protocol, New
Zealand is committed to reducing its emissions to 1990 levels, on
average, over the period 2008-2012, or taking responsibility for any
excess emissions by purchasing or generating Kyoto-compliant units. The
nature of any international commitments beyond 2012 is currently being be
negotiated.
The Government has a series of solutions
to address climate change and our international commitments. The
presentation will out line the New Zealand response and talk about these
initiatives including the proposed New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme
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Ecosystem carbon exchange in pasture systems
David I. Campbell and Louis A. Schipper, Department of Earth and Ocean
Sciences, University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand
Net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE) responds to diurnal,
seasonal and inter-annual variations of the key climate drivers solar
radiation, temperature and precipitation. Land management practices may
substantially disrupt natural forcing of NEE and the cumulative effect of
these may be to alter the short- and long-term soil carbon store.
The eddy covariance (EC) technique is used
worldwide to assess NEE at a range of timescales, with objectives ranging
from half-hourly process-level investigations, to decadal-scale
assessments of the role of climate change on interannual variability of
carbon fluxes. While the majority of studies have focussed on forest
biomes, there are substantial opportunities for applying the technique to
pastoral land management issues.
In previous studies using the EC technique
we have measured annual and interannual CO2 budgets of two peat wetland
ecosystems (gains of 0.5–2 tC ha–1 yr–1) and assessed a whole-farm carbon
budget for a dairy farm on deep peat soils (loss of 1 tC ha–1 yr–1),
where the impact of a single late-winter over-grazing event distorted the
annual C budget by >0.2 tC ha–1. Our current work includes assessing
the effects of drought and pasture renewal on carbon exchange for grazing
land, and investigating the drivers of soil respiration at the hectare
scale for a cutover peat bog.
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Net Ecosystem Carbon Exchange in Indigenous Forests
John E. Hunt, Francais Kelliher, Tony M. McSeveny, Graeme N. D.
Rogers, David Whitehead Landcare Research, Lincoln, New Zealand
Forests ecosystems mediate large fluxes of CO2 that can result in
relatively long-term storage of carbon as wood. Biological and physical
processes can alter the balance between forest carbon gain and loss.
Recent developments in eddy covariance allow long-term measurements to be
made of net CO2 flux between the atmosphere and the vegetation surface.
These measurements can be used to examine processes that govern CO2
exchange and provide reliable parameters for modeling. The determination
of annual net fluxes is still difficult and the determination of error
terms are problematic – but it is the best independent technique we have
at present for measuring net ecosystem exchange and verifying models.
In New Zealand, eddy covariance
measurements have been made above contrasting forest types (a wet,
mature, podocarp forest, and dry seral, kanuka forest). The exchange of
CO2 in both forests was strongly effected by soil moisture content,
direct and diffuse light levels and temperature. Soil respiration was a
major contributor to net CO2 exchange at both sites and was strongly
influenced (at the kanuka site) by changes in understory biomass, litter
quality and plant phenology.
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Fluxes in soil carbon. Climate change and
management of grasslands
A.J. Parsons, P.C.D. Newton Agresearch Grasslands, Palmerston North, New
Zealand
Understanding what drives changes in soil C has rarely been as
important, as at present, with its implications for sustainable resource
use and its role in climate change mitigation. Doing so requires the
integration of all science disciplines (plant, animal and soil) involved
in our grassland ecosystems, and there are challenges in this, starting
with a need to share perspectives, and to understand each others
definitions and methods.
We will present what we describe as a
'physiologists' viewpoint of C cycling in managed grassland, stressing
the effects of fertiliser inputs and the intensity of utilisation. This
is founded on long-standing measurements of C fluxes, notably in grazed
grassland, and has formed the basis of some widely recognised models for
C exchange under climate change scenarios. We recognise some differences
in emphasis between this approach and a 'soil science' perspective, as to
the relative role of the plant shoot, directly and in producing
shoot/surface litter, on fluxes to soil C.
Our aim in this talk is to stimulate
debate towards a common framework for understanding the drivers of change
in soil C in managed grassland.
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Understanding the
Role of Biological Carbon Sequestration in Soils: the Massey University
Biochar Initiative
Attilio Pigneri1, Mike Hedley2
1Centre for Energy Research – Massey University, Auckland, New
Zealand
2Soil and Earth Sciences Group – Massey University, Palmerston
North, New Zealand
In the wider context of greenhouse gas mitigation options for the land
management sectors (land-use, land-use change and forestry, LULUCF),
biochar represents a new, promising, application but also one for which
both basic and applied research are still required.
The Biochar Initiative, was launched by Massey University as part of its
successful bid to establish the two new MAF Professorships in “Biochar
and Bioenergy Pyrolysis Engineering”, and in “Biochar and Soil Science
Research”.
The Biochar Initiative is a wide ranging, multi-year
internationally-linked research, development and demonstration (RD&D)
program.
A number of research tasks are organized into three closely linked
streams of RD&D activities:
Pyrolysis Plant and Biochar Engineering,
Soil Science and Biochar, and
Biochar and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies.
This paper reports on the program of RD&D activities within the
Biochar Initiative and their role in advancing the understanding of
biochar as a mitigation solution to global climate change and to enable
its uptake in New Zealand – particularly by the agricultural, pastoral
and forestry sectors.
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