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Society Council paper October 2002Proposed Human Resources Study, "the Quantum Project"See also the current activities of the HR Committee here.Issue:Council confirmed at its strategic planning session in late 2001 that a picture of the Human Resources needed for New Zealand's knowledge economy remained a high priority for the Society. The CEO was asked to pursue plans and sponsorship for this very large effort. Update on progress (2002)The concept of the study had been developed in early 2001, under the direction of a Steering Committee chaired by Professor Ian Pool. This concept was further developed into a "sponsorship proposal" and the CEO presented it to EMPSOG, the Government's "Employment Senior Officials Group", which expressed support for the idea, but had no funding of its own. It was then sent to a number of potential sponsor groups in early 2002, including NZVCC, ACRI, Ministry of Labour, MoRST, TTEC, Education, Industry New Zealand, and MED. TTEC, ACRI, NZVCC expressed support in principle, but not in cash. Most recently (following an election hiatus) Labour, Education, MoRST and the ICT section of Industry New Zealand, confirmed interest, and the CEO made a further presentation to them in August. The aim of the presentation was to secure funding to enable Stage One of the study to be carried out. Stage One is essentially a detailed scoping and planning exercise, budgeted at $93,000. The interested Ministries have decided first to meet among themselves to scope out their own common aims and objectives in this area, before deciding whether and how to engage with the Quantum Project. Sponsorship progress remains therefore at a slow pace. However, it is encouraging to see that the project has had the effect of encouraging interdepartmental coordination. This "pre-scoping" exercise on their part is likely to take some time, however, as it is doubtful whether departments will find time in busy schedules to concentrate on the task. The CEO has suggested to them that, if they were to fund Phase One of the project, it could provide to them the resources they need. To assist the process, the CEO volunteered to find $20,000 in cash and/or in kind as the RSNZ contribution to start the project. For information, the "sponsorship proposal" is copied below. Steve Thompson, Chief Executive INTRODUCTIONTaking the knowledge society seriouslyNew Zealand has adopted the concept of a knowledge society. But how do we get there? The Quantum Project aims to look at the quantum of energy needed to get from one state to another: from where we are to where we want to be. To do this we need to ask ourselves: What knowledge is needed? And especially, who can provide this knowledge? Answering these questions requires a clear picture of:
The Royal Society plans to take a major role in assessing the current state of, and future needs for, science and technology (S&T) people in New Zealand. As it is built progressively over the years, this information will provide the basis for policy recommendations to government, the tertiary sector, research providers and industry, allowing them to assess where supply and demand will be sufficient or insufficient – in time to take remedial action. As the picture is completed and regularly updated, the Royal Society and others will develop instruments to ensure the continuing efficient operation of the “market” to match S&T supply with forecast S&T demand. Who will this benefit?Is this just one of those good ideas that we all hope someone else will do? Or is it a much-needed component in the task of strengthening New Zealand’s science and technology base, and the national economy generally? In other words, who will benefit? The stock take we envisage will benefit a number of different audiences in a variety of ways:
How the Royal Society fits inThe Royal Society is an ideal independent and expert location for this proposed study, and also has available the mechanisms by which the study’s results and information from monitoring can be distributed to these different audiences. Indeed, such a role is central to its mandate. Having such a database will allow the New Zealand to:
As we will see below, the task of undertaking a stock take could be carried out by a specially appointed RSNZ staff member, who would maintain the monitoring database, and prepare annual reports on the State of S&T Human Capital and Resources in New Zealand. This would be a report peer-reviewed by the Advisory Committee on Human Capital and Human Resources, and then published by the Society. A GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THE STOCKTAKEObjectivesThe overriding objective is to develop a knowledge base of the human capital (the level of investment in the skills, aptitudes, capacities and well-being of the workforce) and human resources in science and technology in New Zealand. The proposed study will have several phases, with short-, medium- and long-term objectives. The longer-term objectives will then be translated into a permanent monitoring system. The specific objectives for each of the phases of the study are summarised at the end, where we will also look at staff and funding required. But before examining our proposal in more detail, we need to look more closely at the reasons for carrying out this research. New Zealand in a global context: are we vulnerable?The fundamental importance of accurate information about human capital and resources for creating a knowledge society has become a major policy issue in OECD countries. A number have already introduced measures to address this problem, either by specific initiatives (as in Canada’s dedicated research chairs) or as part of far-reaching programmes in which economic development is leveraged through innovation and a knowledge society (in Ireland, for example). Australia is concerned about these problems, and is at a similar stage in looking into studies to explore some of the issues. It is becoming increasingly clear that S&T’s human capital must be subject to an informed market. The supply and demand sides are complex and have exceptionally long time horizons. Part of this complexity is due to the fact that both demand and supply are global, and the S&T workforce is extremely mobile. S&T workers go to where the jobs are. Consequently, human resource processes and organisational structures, the way management systems respond to and administer skilled workforces, the physical capital capacity provided, and morale are all hugely important. Some countries are more vulnerable than others in terms of whether they can retain and attract skilled S&T workers. The reasons for this include economies of scale, relative wealth per capita, the establishment of an S&T infrastructure, and a history of encouraging innovation and the development of a highly skilled workforce. As a result, some countries will become seedbeds for human capital and others will exploit S&T human capital more effectively and become investors or net importers. In this respect, most observers would agree that New Zealand is extraordinarily vulnerable. This became clear during the Foresight exercise and its associated Midsight Conference, which provided the rationale for the study proposed here. A review of its discussions[1] shows that there was virtually unanimous agreement on the singular importance of S&T human capital. Yet, despite Foresight and MoRST’s Knowledge-base exercise, we still have no systematic information even on where there are gaps in our knowledge about S&T human capital and resources. We have no systematic evidence base for strategies that might overcome some of the problems New Zealand faces. Because of the current high level of interest in this area, there is a growing number of disparate initiatives now addressing various aspects of the issue. So the first and most urgent step for any serious study should be a comprehensive analysis and synthesis of the existing information and knowledge, and the ongoing research being done on S&T human capital and resources. This is put forward as the first phase of the study proposed here. Knowing what we don’t know is just a start. Other subsequent issues also require urgent analysis, and we look at some of these now. WHAT QUESTIONS SHOULD WE BE ASKING?1.1 How many?How many scientists and technologists are currently available in New Zealand, and what skills do they have? The answer to these questions gives an indication of our S&T human capital. A definite answer is confounded by the fact that the S&T labour market is global, and perhaps the most mobile and fluid of any. So any serious New Zealand study must maintain surveillance of international stocks. 1.2 Where are they going?Are S&T workers staying in their jobs? How many students are potentially available to enter the market? These are measures of the flow of human capital. There are several key issues:
The mobility of this labour force makes it imperative that we look at all aspects of flow, including the flow of students through tertiary educational establishments and then out into New Zealand’s S&T workforce, and the arrivals and departures of S&T workers as migrants. We also need to keep an eye on international demographic trends. For example, New Zealand has recently been partially dependent on inflows of highly skilled S&T workers from northeast Asia, especially from the People’s Republic of China. Japan, facing a potential labour shortage, is now looking at these countries as a source of highly skilled workers, and would compete with New Zealand. But Japan itself is now also recognising that because of other demographic trends (rapid declines in fertility), the other countries of south and northeast Asia (Thailand, Korea, Taiwan, China) will themselves soon be facing labour shortages, especially at the crucial new entrants’ age groups. 1.3 Where are they coming from?Mention of new entrants raises another frequently overlooked issue: the long period needed to develop stocks of S&T human capital. To train a highly skilled worker typically requires 5–10 years or more, and is not something that can be implemented to meet short-term crises. In the past New Zealand has often overcome short-term gaps between supply and demand by recruiting, primarily from Europe, and from a sprinkling of other countries. These latter flows have often been transitory (for example, the recent South African flows) and are not reliable long-term sources. And many of these workers come to New Zealand, then move on rather than settling permanently. More importantly, what were traditional migrant countries of origin are now reversing the pattern by recruiting from third-country labour markets in competition with countries such as Canada, Australia and New Zealand, as well as from these traditional migrant-receiving countries. Increasingly, Europe is now recruiting from us rather than the other way around. 1.4 How do we manage our S&T people?How do organisations value, manage, evaluate and exploit research? How do they shepherd it from an idea through various intermediate stages to production or the provision of services? 1.5 Who will we need in the future?How can we predict what the demand for people with certain sets of skills will be in the future? This is by far the most difficult question to answer, because we not only have to analyse what employers/industry/government/CRIs etc. need at the moment, but also try to predict what the emerging areas of science and technology are, and what their human capital requirements will be. The lag-time factor becomes particularly critical when analysing demand and the potential for meeting it. To add to the problem, breakthroughs in technology can create sudden unexpected shifts in demand. This study sets out to answer the questions we have been posing. But to do so requires resources – the right people and a certain level of funding. In this final section we look briefly at what is required. RESOURCES NEEDED FOR THE STUDYPhase 1: Immediate objective (6 months)The immediate objective is to undertake a stock-take of current studies of human capital in the S&T sector, data sources available in New Zealand, and the existing knowledge base on S&T human capital and resources. Phase 1 should start as soon as funding is secured and be completed within six months. It requires a full-time Wellington-based researcher who is a senior person with well-established networks among official and scientific agencies and personnel. A research assistant who is a postgraduate with expertise in management systems and human resources, as these relate to highly skilled workforces, will assist him or her. Phase 1 has three components: a) expository analysis by a senior researcher and a research assistant: 3 months b) preparation and presentation of a report to the Royal Society’s Advisory Committee on Human Capital and Resources: 1 month c) formulation of proposals for subsequent phases of the study by the committee, in consultation with the senior researcher and the CEO of the Royal Society, and submission of the proposal to potential funders: 2 months, with 2 weeks work by the senior researcher. Approximate budget 4½ months senior researcher plus office costs: $60,000 3½ months research assistant plus office costs: $23,000 Travel by the researchers and by the Advisory Committee, tolls and other operational costs: $10,000 TOTAL $93,000 Phase 2: Short-term objectives (by October 2003)On the successful completion of Phase 1, the subsequent phases will be formulated with the assistance of the Advisory Committee. Phase 1 should provide a set of broad postulates to investigate. The short-term objectives are to get an accurate picture of:
Approximate budgetStaff: Full-time researcher (senior level), research assistance, and possibly sub-contracts in areas requiring specialised expertise Salaries and office costs: $200,000 Additional funding required: data purchases, especially detailed time series tabulations of census and other secondary data, and analysis: at least $50,000 plus $10,000 for incidentals. TOTAL $260,000 Phase 3: Medium-term objectives (2003–2005)In this phase, while keeping track of the overall picture we will begin to look at what is happening in individual sectors and enterprises. This could mean using custom-designed surveys. The medium-term objectives are to:
Approximate budgetStaff: Full-time researcher (senior level), research assistance, and possibly sub-contracts in areas requiring specialised expertise Salaries and office costs: $200,000. Additional funding required: at least $60,000 p.a. Data purchase costs will be less, but travel, data coding and entry, and analysis costs will be higher. Much will depend on the co-operation of enterprises: if they code their own data (which they may well desire for reasons of privacy and commercial sensitivity) then costs may be lowered. Custom-designed surveys would be a further major budget item. TOTAL p.a. $260,000 Phase 4: Long-term objectivesThe long-term objective is to set in place and maintain a system, under the auspices of the Royal Society, to monitor the stocks, flows and demands for S&T human capital, and to monitor the way in which HR and management processes are able to respond to these. It is envisaged that carrying out this monitoring (as against data collection) would become a separately funded, mandated function of the Royal Society. Approximate budgetStaff: Full-time RSNZ official (senior lecturer level) Salary and office costs: $140,000 p.a. Responsibilities: maintain the monitoring database, and prepare routine annual reports. Additional funding required: if annual or occasional surveys are to be carried out as a component of the monitoring process, then extra funding would be required. TOTAL p.a. $140,000 [1] Royal Society of New Zealand, Leadership and Priorities in Science and Technology in New Zealand. Miscellaneous papers. |