New Zealand Journal of
Agricultural Research abstracts
The economic implications of
climate-induced variations in milk production
A. B. Tait
J. A. Renwick
National Institute of Water
and Atmospheric Research Ltd
Private Bag 14 901
Wellington, New Zealand
a.tait@niwa.co.nz
A. H. Stroombergen
Infometrics Ltd
P.O. Box 10 068
Wellington, New Zealand
Abstract Deviations
from normal in New Zealand’s annual milk production, caused by major
climatic variations, have a direct impact on the country’s economy.
This study shows that the key climatic variables that positively and
negatively affect milk production are rainfall, days of soil moisture
deficit, and growing degree days. Production in eastern regions and
Southland is also affected by the previous year’s production,
indicating that the effects of “good” or “bad” years can propagate into
the following year. The largest negative deviation in milk production
in the last 30 years, approximately 10% nationally, was in 1998/99, a
La Niña year. However, climatic effects caused by
the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon in
isolation are shown not to consistently impact on national milk
production. Economic model runs using several scenarios of
drought-induced reductions in national milk production of the order of
10% show impacts on private consumption and GDP of between 0.3 and
0.5%. Doubling the reduction in milk production leads to non-linear
economic impacts, with private consumption falling by 1.2% and GDP
falling by 1.1%.
Keywords climate
variability; drought; milk production; economic impacts; private
consumption; GDP
A04070; Received 19 June 2004;
accepted 5 April 2005; Online publication date 30 May 2005
New Zealand Journal of
Agricultural Research, 2005, Vol. 48:
213–225
0028–8233/05/4802–0213 © The Royal Society of New Zealand 2005
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