New Zealand Journal Agricultural Research abstracts
Study on the procedure and approach for ecological risk
regionalisation
Yang Juan1,2
Cai YongLi2,*
Xiang WeiNing2,3
Zhao JingYin1
1Agricultural Information Technology and Engineering
Centre
Shanghai Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Shanghai 201106
PR China
2School of Resource & Environment
East China Normal University
Shanghai Key Laboratory for Ecology of Urbanisation Process and
Eco-Restoration
Shanghai 200062
PR China
3Department of Geography and Earth Sciences
University of North Carolina at Charlotte
Charlotte
North Carolina 28223, USA
*Author for correspondence: ylcai@geo.ecnu.edu.cn
Abstract Ecological risk regionalisation
is a process for
determining the distribution of eco-risk. The basis of ecological risk
regionalisation is regional ecological risk assessment. Existing
procedures for ecological risk assessment often aim at natural
ecosystems and are used mainly for retrospective evaluation of risks.
This paper presents a tiered ecological risk assessment procedure
(TERAP) for complex ecosystems. The approach is not only for current
evaluation, but also for retrospective and future evaluations. Based on
the TERAP, a regional ecological risk assessment model was constructed.
The TERAP has three tiers: the first is demarcation of the area
affected by a particular stressor; the second is a semi-quantitative
assessment of the risk index which is gained from the vulnerability
index and integrated into the hazard index; the third is quantitative
loss evaluation under the risk index. The main factors in the
ecological risk assessment model are ecosystem attributes and
socio-economy status. According to the main factors in the model, the
change in the ecosystem into the future is simulated and the
socioeconomic mathematical model is constructed. In this paper, taking
Chongming Island as an example, the approach taken for simulation of
the future ecosystem is analysis with the CLUE-S model. The end purpose
of current and future ecological risk regionalisation is to direct
region programming and risk management.
Keywords ecological risk regionalisation;
forecast; regional
ecological risk assessment
A07112; Online publication date 31 March 2008; Received and accepted
10 August 2007
New Zealand Journal of Agricultural Research, 2007, Vol. 50:
943–950
0028–8233/07/5005–0943 © The Royal Society of New Zealand 2007
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