New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics abstracts
Application of M8 and Lin-Lin algorithms to New Zealand earthquake data
MA LI
Centre for Analysis and Prediction
State Seismological Bureau
P.O. Box 166
Beijing 100036, China
DAVID VERE-JONES
Institute of Statistics and Operations Research
Victoria University of Wellington
P.O. Box 600
Wellington, New Zealand
Abstract This paper describes the application to New Zealand
data of two algorithms recently made available through the IASPEI software
programme. These are the M8 algorithm, which has the objective of identifying
times and regions of heightened probability of the occurrence of a large
damaging earthquake, and the Lin-Lin algorithm, which has the objective of
identifying linear causal relationships between one sequence of events and
another. The M8 algorithm is applied to the New Zealand events listed in the
NEIC catalogue, and to shallow, deep, and combined events listed in the New
Zealand local catalogue. The most notable feature of the M8 analysis is the
generation of TIPS (times of increased probability) for 1993 onward, for
central New Zealand regions from both the New Zealand and NEIC catalogues. No
short-term linear causal relationships between New Zealand deep and shallow
earthquakes are detected by the Lin-Lin algorithm.
The paper includes brief discussions of the catalogues, of the background and
structure of the algorithms used, and of the results obtained.
Keywords earthquake prediction; New Zealand; earthquakes;
point process models; M8 algorithm; Lin-Lin algorithm
New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 1997, Vol. 40: 77-89
0028-8306/97/4001--0077 $2.50/0 (c) The Royal Society of New Zealand
1997
PDF file of entire paper: medium quality (1329K); (scanned from paper original: notes about this process)
This year's abstracts |
Journal home page |
All abstracts |
Publishing home page
