New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research abstracts
Extreme wave predictions around New Zealand from hindcast data
Scott A. Stephens
Richard M. Gorman
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric
Research Limited
P.O. Box 11 115
Hamilton, New Zealand
email: s.stephens@niwa.co.nz
Abstract A recently implemented wave hindcast for the New
Zealand region was used in conjunction with wave-buoy data to evaluate extreme
significant wave height at multiple sites around New Zealand, for the first
time. Hindcast storm wave heights were under-predicted compared with wave-buoy
measurements at three inshore sites, and a method for scaling the hindcast
data to improve the comparison of predicted extreme wave heights was explored.
Different statistical methods for predicting extreme wave heights were also
compared. Offshore, extreme wave heights displayed a north–south and an east–west gradient that
is in keeping with the mean wave climate, with larger waves in the south and
in the west. However, the variation of extreme wave heights between sites was
less than the mean wave climate would suggest, because mid-latitude depressions
generate comparatively large waves on the generally more sheltered northeast
coast. At the most energetic site to the southwest of the South Island, a 1 in
100-year return significant wave height Hs(100) of 19.3 m and maximum
wave height Hmax(100) of 45 m were predicted. At the least energetic
site to the northeast of the North Island, estimates of Hs(100) = 13.9
m and Hmax(100)
= 33 m were obtained.
Keywords extreme wave height; wave hindcast; wave climate;
New Zealand
New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research, 2006, Vol. 40:
399–411
0028–8330/06/4003–0399 © The Royal Society
of New Zealand 2006
M05073; Online publication date 7 July 2006. Received 23 November 2005;
accepted 21 February 2006
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