Science and technologies important to New Zealand’s energy future

Background

In November, 2004, The Royal Society of New Zealand held a conference “People and Energy: how do we use it?” This was one of a number of Workshops and Conferences devoted to energy themes in the past year. The proceedings of the RSNZ conference will be published shortly, and they highlight many energy issues. Globally, the world economy has been accompanied by ever-increasing demand for energy. Currently, a significant fraction of this energy comes from fossil fuels and we are seeing today changes in our biosphere as it absorbs the resulting emissions and waste. In future energy programmes, New Zealand must be a participant and not just an observer.

It is easy simply to take the position that we will use the technology developed by others and leave the problem to others. Nationally and internationally, energy use is seen to be critical to maintaining our present way of life. This is reflected in the very large interest and effort that is going into energy issues globally. For a small nation, the conference reflected the wide range of energy sources that New Zealand utilizes, far more than most other nations. As the world moves from an oil economy it is increasingly likely that solutions to our particular energy needs will be centred on our relative geographic isolation, our environment and climate, and the need for energy independence. While we have excellent links to the International Energy Agency (IEA) and their research programmes, the Department of Energy and the National Research Energy Laboratories in the United States and other international efforts, it is clear that there are major opportunities for us not only to deal with our own energy problems but to become technology developers and exporters in this field.

Indeed, the Ministry of Economic Development, the New Zealand Business Council for Sustainable Development and many energy focused teams within Universities and other organisations are contributing to the pool of knowledge of our own energy issues and the growing new industry opportunities.

As a result of the RSNZ conference in 2004, Council at its meeting in March 2005 discussed the very real need to focus on our own use of science and technology resources to provide solutions to New Zealand’s future energy needs and supply. These same issues appear to be those, that in this century, we will likely witness the greatest impact of science and technology. The challenge for the RSNZ is how we participate as we actively work to build our nation, where scientists and technologists contribute their skills to the nation’s prosperity and the sustainability of our environment.

The following summarizes a number of discussions I have had since the March Council meeting. The information contained in what follows comes from the conference proceedings and reports from the IEA. I have been helped by our RSNZ staff in writing this.

First, The RSNZ Energy Conference

The core issues that were presented at the RSNZ conference in Christchurch, November 2004 can be grouped into three theme areas:

The first of these is sustainability – the need for development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (taken from The Bruntland Commission Report, 1987).

The most significant issue of sustainability today is the impact that fossil fuel usage during the past century has had on the CO₂ concentration of the atmosphere. There is a general consensus among scientists that this CO₂ level has impacted on climate change, and that this will continue unless this greenhouse gas is held to recent historical levels. However, the extent of climate change and the impacts on economic performance of the biosphere are contentious issues.

A major step forward appears to be the signing of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol which establishes legally binding greenhouse gas emission allowances for all developed countries that have ratified it. The first commitment period of 2008-12 has targets related to a baseline of emissions in 1990 for treating the six greenhouse gases considered responsible for climate change: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride on a CO₂ equivalent basis. Mechanisms have been established to trade greenhouse gas emissions reductions, and credits for sequestration such as forest planting in what is loosely termed the “carbon market”.

The Kyoto Protocol allows the opportunity for international initiatives to reduce greenhouse gases emissions cost effectively through the use of the trading of CO₂ equivalent emission allowances. New Zealand appears to be in the fortunate position that its high growth in gross greenhouse gas emissions since 1990 has been more than matched by its CO₂ sequestration from new forest plantations.

Carbon emissions are considered by many to be responsible for most of the greenhouse gas effects of global warming, and climate change. Climate change is generally thought to be a threat to the way we live, and the sustainability of ecological services we obtain from the planet. Thus, the balance of interests of society must be weighed up against what little we know about the impacts of climate change. The extent to which we implement policies that make our way of life sustainable is very much dependent on values judgements. These relate to who pays, who is responsible, and who benefits from adaptations we make for sustainability.

There are strong scientific issues that underlie sustainability, and the RSNZ has a role in providing the scientific information available that is needed to make value judgements underpinning government policy. The RSNZ must engage its range of expertise and its independence to assist with choices that will be made and will impact on our future.

New Zealand has taken environmental concerns seriously in adopting many environmental standards basically driven by our desire to preserve natural resources and maintain a clean green New Zealand image.

This is a global problem – balancing the gains of new energy development against potential harmful effects on the environment – and one of the most difficult, as we can no longer allow short term economic gain, at the expense of the environment, to dictate policy.

Current levels of energy consumption and production are not sustainable and stronger emphasis is now being placed on the development of cleaner and more efficient technologies. These are big issues that we need to address in realistic New Zealand-centric science and technology terms.

A second conference theme was based on demand of energy. Demand can be separated into various sectors:

transport (primarily air, rail and motor vehicle use);
electricity transmission e.g. inefficiencies that increase demand / constraints on demand from limited transmission capabilities;
residential use;
business use; and
industrial use such as in agriculture and manufacturing.

Demand was considered in light of energy distribution, standards for building, appliance, plant and machinery efficiency, economic (behavioural) incentives for demand reduction, and the nature of appliances using electricity i.e. sensitive microprocessors to run computers and machinery. It was considered in terms of localised energy production systems to meet localised demand such as in rural areas, or to reduce constraints due to limited transmission capabilities.

The third conference theme was supply of energy including transmission. In particular the focus was on the depleting natural gas supplies, international security of oil supply, renewable electricity production, transmission and retail of electricity, carbon capture and storage in the use of thermal fuels and future energy systems including hydrogen, solar and other non-CO2 emitting supply systems. In New Zealand it is unlikely that nuclear power will become a source of electricity, but nuclear energy has the ability to produce power without carbon emissions.

So what are our current core energy fuels and what do they tell us about the future?

To put this into context, the total global energy use has increased between 1.5-2.0% per annum since the oil shocks of the 1970s. This energy has come from a range of sources and the sources illustrate our ability to take whatever technologies are available to meet our energy needs. We, in New Zealand, reflect the use of the total global energy fuels and technologies rather than a niche development based on a narrow source of fuels. To consider where science and technology could be better focused it is worth beginning by summarizing the current status.

Hydroelectricity

This is by far the largest renewable resource used for electricity generation worldwide. The economic potential of hydroelectricity is often considered at many times the current global installed capacity.

New Zealand has a high proportion of hydroelectricity, largely based on plants built from the 1930s to the 1980s. New developments have run into substantial public opposition because of some of the environmental and land use issues involved.

Burning Wood

Wood is still a significant contributor to New Zealand’s primary energy supply through burning with coal, or co-firing, for generating heat or power in many industrial processes. Domestic use has declined significantly, particularly with the increasing availability of gas.

Oil

Current global oil consumption is around 80 million barrels per day having grown rapidly in the last two years, with the International Energy Agency predicting oil consumption to reach 120 million barrels per day in 2030. Oil is a major primary energy supply for New Zealand and given the history of lack of large oil discoveries in New Zealand, we are likely to remain a significant importer of oil.

“The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil.” The quotation is taken from the Economist recently, and was stated by Sheikh Zaki Yamani, a Saudi Arabian who served as his country’s oil minister three decades ago. Sheikh Yamani first came to the world’s attention during the Arab oil embargo of the United States, which began three decades ago and whose effects altered the course of modern economic and political history.

A generation after the embargo began, the facts seem plain: the world remains addicted to Middle Eastern oil. So why is Sheikh Yamani predicting the end of the Oil Age? Because he believes that something fundamental has shifted since that first oil shock. Advances in technology are beginning to offer a way for economies, especially those of the developed world, to diversify their supplies of energy and reduce their demand for oil.

Gas

Current world natural gas consumption has been growing at about 3% per annum over the last 20 years. In New Zealand most gas is distributed by pipeline from producing fields. In Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facilities, the gas is liquefied and then transported to markets. A significant portion of natural gas growth is driven by the increasing use of gas in electricity generation. Power generators are looking to LNG and coal to replace local gas.

Petrochemical Feedstocks

Currently oil provides the bulk of the feedstock for petrochemical plants producing many of the items the world economy depends upon such as plastics, and chemicals such as organic solvents.

If there are no new discoveries in the relatively short term the New Zealand’s gas conversion industries such as the ammonia/urea plant will likely suffer.

Coal

There is an enormous effort to develop new coal based power generation technologies with reduced environmental impact. They are often referred to as “clean coal technologies.” Coal gasification is also seen to be an important enabling technology in the transition towards a hydrogen energy economy.

There is a sizable coal resource in New Zealand. Reserves have been estimated to be equivalent to about 30 times the original Maui gas field. Southland and Otago lignite represents about 70% of the resource, sub-bituminous coal mainly in the Waikato about 26% and West Coast bituminous coal about 8%.

The main uses of coal are for the chemical reduction of ironsand at New Zealand Steel, electricity generation at Huntly and boiler combustion for process heat in a wide range of industries.

Solar, Wind, Ocean and Geothermal Technologies

Collectively these supply only a few percent of world energy. This proportion could increase if technology costs were to decrease. New Zealand has a long history of geothermal use for power generation and geothermal is a significant contributor to New Zealand energy supply. Technologies for tidal energy, wave energy, ocean thermal energy and salt gradient energy are likely to remain as small contributors well into the future.

Biomass

Biomass is used as a primary fuel for electricity generation, heat or to produce transportation fuels. Currently biomass is combusted directly or with coal co-firing, when used for heat or electricity generation. Carbohydrates extracted from biomass can be processed to ethanol to use as transport fuel. The option of using ethanol in place of coal to produce hydrogen offers a major opportunity for science and technology innovation.

Lignin extracted from biomass is a lowly regarded value product. However, its potential is enormous. Extraction of natural lignin can be used as a valuable biomaterial to begin replacing petrochemical-derived biomaterials.

While biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel currently make up a small proportion of the world’s transport supply, biomass-derived energy has the potential to provide a significant proportion of the world’s transport fuel requirements.

The many opportunities for the use of biomass, offer New Zealand the technology opportunity to be at the forefront of new generation biomass energy technology. New Zealand’s agricultural heritage and efficiency are well suited to energy farming or the cropping of high biomass producing plants that can be harvested annually or biannually. Energy farming could well become the new primary industry of agriculture this century in New Zealand.

It is important to consider other aspects of biomass production that can be applied to New Zealand’s environmental problems due to nitrification of our lakes. Growth of low nitrogen-requiring biomass crops for energy use is an economic alternative to pastoral farming in some regions where the run-off of nitrogen fertilizers into lake is a major contributor to nitrification.

CO₂ capture

The technology of CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) or sequestration is an essential component in the transition to sustainable energy. There are several options for sequestration including the growing of forests, geological sequestration and ocean storage.

Geological storage consists of the disposal of captured CO₂ by pumping it into deep saline aquifers, depleted oil and gas wells and deep coal seams. World wide it is estimated that sufficient capacity exists in these options to sequester several times the world’s projected energy related CO₂ emissions for a number of decades.

Hydrogen

The importance of the development of a hydrogen economy is widely recognised by the international energy community. The initial widespread use of hydrogen fuel cells is occurring as a replacement power source for computers and other electronic devices. It is also recognised there will be a long transitional period, during which coal will be a major source of hydrogen. Ethanol technology may well change this perception.

Back To The Royal Society

We have growing energy use and New Zealand’s energy efficiency is roughly constant, unlike the rest of the developed world. Today, issues such as the depletion of Maui gas fields and recent impacts of droughts on hydro lake storage have major potential impacts on the New Zealand economy. Energy is a huge issue, covering various sectors (transport, residential, business, industry) and providers (from electricity producers to OPEC), with many consequent behavioural and economic modelling aspects.

The above survey of energy sources serves to focus potential science and technology opportunities - of these, the use of coal, the development of biomass-based fuels and biomaterials, harnessing CO and CO₂ from gaseous emissions, photosynthetic energy and the hydrogen field, appear of paramount interest to New Zealand’s immediate and long term energy security and economy - but this is one person’s view.

What is clear is that there are many opportunities to apply innovative science and technology to underpin our future.

A Royal Society Energy Group

The Council has asked that the Society form a working group focused on the science and technology of our energy future. The energy group needs to include active researchers whose fields of expertise can directly contribute, Fellows of the RSNZ, and social scientists and technologists involved in new technologies associated with energy. Terms of reference are being set up for the group, bearing in mind the particular remit of the Society in matters scientific and technological. For that reason, the group will be asked to focus on "The Future Science and Technology of Energy".

Would you like to express interest in joining the group? It must perforce be small and workable, so we will be able to take just a few, but we would like to hear from you. Even more importantly, we would like to read your point of view. If you would like to express interest in the working group, or share your own thoughts on the future science and technology of energy, please e-mail Jez Weston who will pass your message on to the group.

J.D. Watson
12 April 2005